Automated Uncertainty Quantification through Information Fusion in Manufacturing Processes

TitleAutomated Uncertainty Quantification through Information Fusion in Manufacturing Processes
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsNannapaneni, S., S. Mahadevan, A. Dubey, D. Lechevalier, A. Narayanan, and S. Rachuri
Refereed DesignationRefereed
JournalJournal of Sustainable and Smart Manufacturing Systems

Evaluation of key performance indicators (KPIs) such as energy consumption is essential for decision- making during the design and operation of smart manufacturing systems. The measurements of KPIs are strongly affected by several uncertainty sources such as input material uncertainty, the inherent variability in the manufacturing process, model uncertainty and the uncertainty in the sensor measurements of operational data. A comprehensive understanding of the uncertainty sources and their effect on the KPIs is required to make the manufacturing processes more efficient. Towards this objective, this paper proposes an automated methodology to generate a Hierarchical Bayesian network (HBN) for a manufacturing system from semantic system models, physics-based models and available data in an automated manner, which can be used to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis. The semantic system model, which is a high-level model describing the system along with its parameters is assumed to be available in the Generic Modeling Environment (GME) platform. Apart from semantic description, physics-based models, if available, are assumed to be available in model libraries. The proposed methodology is divided into two tasks – (1) Automated Hierarchical Bayesian network construction using semantic system model, available models and data, and (2) Automated uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis. A metamodel of a HBN is developed using the GME, along with a syntax representation for the associated conditional probability tables/distributions. The constructed HBN corresponding to a system is represented as an instance model of the HBN metamodel. On the metamodel, a model interpreter is written to be able to carry out the UQ analysis in an automated manner for any HBN instance model conforming to the HBN metamodel. The proposed methodologies are demonstrated using an injection molding process.

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